This week, the market has experienced a weak adjustment, and the dominance of altcoins has rebounded.
Author: Jonas
A. Market View
I. Macro Liquidity
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Monetary liquidity is tightening. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in July as scheduled, although it did not indicate whether there will be further rate hikes, the overall stance is dovish. This round of interest rate hikes has now reached 11 times, with a total increase of 525 basis points, and the interest rate has risen from 0.25% to 5.5%, reaching the highest level since the beginning of this century. As the Federal Reserve approaches the end of the interest rate cycle, the US dollar index has fallen below 100 points. In recent weeks, BTC has performed poorly compared to technology stocks.
II. Overall Market Situation
Top 100 market cap gainers:
This week, the market experienced a weak adjustment. The dominance of altcoins has rebounded. Market liquidity is insufficient, and opportunities are mostly in small and new coins on the blockchain. In the last bear market, funds were speculated on capital platforms, and this round has shifted to speculation on dog projects. The projects with better gains this round are those with real income and use the income for dividends and repurchases. The market hotspots are trading robots and RWA.
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WLD: The goal is to issue coins to everyone in the world and establish the first global-level real human identity narrative public chain, which can be used for payment and financial scenarios. The risk lies in the need for cooperation with local authorities for iris recognition biometric data. The token economics adopts a low circulation and high market value model. Its market value has entered the top 10, and there is relatively limited room for further increase.
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MKR: A leader in real asset securitization, 70% of its income comes from the RWA track. The data of the new business lending business has also reached a historical high recently. The factor of long-term suppression of token prices by major shareholder A16Z is about to be eliminated.
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UNIBOT: A leader in the trading robot track, benefiting from the popularity of dog projects on the blockchain. UNIBOT has some innovations, allowing users to place orders and trade directly on Telegram at a faster speed than Uniswap, with real income and dividends. However, the token model, which adopts a trading tax model similar to meme coins, has been criticized.
III. BTC Market
1) On-chain data
The amount of BTC involved in transactions is decreasing. The number of investors holding BTC for more than six months and one year has reached new highs, with 75% of those holding BTC for more than six months not having moved, and 69% of those holding BTC for more than one year.
The market value of on-chain stablecoins has slightly decreased. The market value of the four major stablecoins has decreased by approximately $400 million. BTC is still likely to oscillate until there is no new news about spot ETFs.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV has dropped below the key level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 0.69, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Funding rate: Neutral this week. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, indicating more long leverages, which could be a short-term market top; the rate is -0.1-0%, indicating more short leverages, which could be a short-term market bottom.
Open interest: The total open interest has slightly decreased this week, and the main players have withdrawn.
Long/short ratio: 1.3. Market sentiment is neutral. Retail sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. The fluctuation of the long/short ratio data weakens its significance.
3) Spot Market
The market has been weakly oscillating this week, but with the Fed’s interest rate hike landing, the short-term bearishness is expected to dissipate. BTC is still above the weekly line, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment, but the upside potential is limited. Altcoin index has seen more rebounds recently, and there may be a wave of catch-up opportunities for changing altcoins.
B. Market Data
I. Total Locked Value (TVL) of Public Chains
II. TVL Distribution of Public Chains
This week, TVL has decreased by $1.1 billion. The ETH chain’s share of TVL has slightly decreased by 0.4% this week. Optimism continues its good upward trend from last week, with a growth of 4.29% and a total growth of 14.59% this month. However, in terms of active users, although the number of users on the Op chain increased by 50% last week, it has basically returned to the previous level this week, with 108,011 active users. Avalanche, on the other hand, has seen a significant decline, with a decrease of 3.17% and a total decrease of 7.9% this month.
3. Lock-up Amounts of Various Chain Protocols
1) ETH Lock-up Amount
2) BSC Lock-up Amount
3) Polygon Lock-up Amount
4) Arbitrum Lock-up Amount
5) Optimism Lock-up Amount
4. ETH Gas Fee Historical Data
The current on-chain transfer fee is approximately 7.27, and the transaction fee for OpenSea is approximately $2.82. Compared to the gas situation last week, the gas level this week is basically the same as last week, but the transaction fees for Uniswap and Opensea have dropped significantly, which may indicate a significant decrease in transaction activity.
5. NFT Market Data Changes
1) NFT-500 Index:
2) NFT Market Situation:
3) NFT Trading Market Share:
4) NFT Buyer Analysis:
5) Active Projects:
This week, the total market value of the NFT market is still declining. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of top blue-chip projects has decreased by about 10% compared to last week. The fluctuation curve of active projects indicates a lack of market activity. Looking at the active wallet addresses of new and old NFT buyers, the situation of old users paying for NFTs continues to weaken, and new user entry continues to decline.
6. Latest Financing Status of Projects
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