Original Author: @punk2898
Original Source: Twitter
Note: The original post was made by @punk2898 on Twitter.
In the year 19, has this bear market finally come to an end?
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1/ The way I determine the end of a bear market is different from others
By examining the commonalities between the funding market in 19 and the dogecoin market in 23, clues can be found.
Although the cryptocurrency market is chaotic, there are some objective rules:
The demand for funding markets has always existed
Funding markets will not disappear but will continue to evolve
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes
2/ Let’s review the bear market in 2019
Funding markets: Although the cryptocurrency market was in a bear market at the time, there was still a demand for speculative funding, which gave rise to funding markets.
Payment methods: Funding markets also evolved from fiat currencies to digital currencies, which made the cryptocurrency market realize the power of funding markets for the first time.
Exchanges: Since there were funding markets, exchanges were needed. At the time, Huobi was still a leading exchange, and Binance and OKEx would not list some funding projects for reputation reasons.
So many large and small exchanges emerged that year. The most well-known one was probably Matcha (now probably not many newcomers remember), which established its foothold through this differentiated competition.
3/ Why do we say “history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes”?
Many people (including myself) thought that this round of bear market would also have a large number of funding markets, just like the previous round.
But reality turned out to be quite different:
Dogecoin market: Every four years, there is a cycle. Sometimes it’s just that magical. There were no assets available for speculation in the market, and then the dogecoin market emerged. Isn’t this just like the funding markets of the past?
They have the same essence, but this time they evolved. From centralized applications to DApps, from servers to on-chain contracts, from CEX to DEX.
Exchanges: There is a line in “The Three-Body Problem” that is particularly good, “[Destroy you, it has nothing to do with you]. Since there was no Uniswap back then, exchanges like Matcha were needed to trade dogecoins. But now, Uniswap provides a great experience. There is no need to worry about exchanges freezing accounts, data crashes, hacking, or bosses running away, etc.
As a result, due to Uniswap and other DEXs, Matcha slowly faded out of the public eye. It’s not because of Matcha itself, but because Uniswap is more suitable for the dogecoin market.
4/ If we say that during a bull market, everyone plays PvE (Player vs Environment) games, then now everyone is playing PvP (Player vs Player) games.
Everyone knows that the rules of PvE games are relatively clear and the routines can be gradually discovered. But PvP is about fighting against other people? Mutual destruction in the market?
Conclusion
Based on the current performance, the current “Tugou Pan Intra-field Cutting” can be compared to the fund scams in 2019, indicating that the market has finally entered a deep bearish zone.
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