Author: Sebastian Sinclair, Blockworks Translation: Shanooba, LianGuai
Bitcoin (BTC) is less than six months away from the next halving event, which is expected to take place in early April next year, leading analysts to speculate on its price trend. BTC has risen by over 66% this year, reaching $27,600, marking the first September rally in seven years. According to Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, recent data shows subtle changes in cryptocurrency behavior.
In its latest “Bitcoin Monthly Report,” the asset management company highlights some noteworthy observations, including the possibility of the asset being in a “periodic oversold zone.” The report mentions that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-capital ratio closed at 0.02% in September, slightly higher than the annual low of 0.01%. This oversold condition has only occurred seven times in Bitcoin’s history. Ark’s data also shows that Bitcoin is mainly concentrated in the hands of long-term holders. While the asset’s price fell on Monday, some attributed it to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Specifically, more than 76% of the total Bitcoin supply is held by individuals who have not traded for over 155 days. This could indicate a decrease in the active availability of Bitcoin for trading.
Last week, blockchain analytics company Glassnode reported that the total amount of long-term held or presumed lost Bitcoin reached a five-year high, exceeding 7.9 million BTC.
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Bitfinex analysts state that in the broader financial realm, Bitcoin’s price trend appears to differ from that of the traditional stock market. Bitcoin’s price has rebounded before the S&P 500 index reached its low point of 4,200 earlier this month. According to their analysis, the correlation index shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has dropped from 0.8 on August 25 to -0.5, indicating a sharp contrast with the trend of the world’s most important digital asset and traditional stocks. This situation typically occurs when either asset category suddenly rises or falls, or when the information price of Bitcoin or the US stock market is faster than the other.
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