Author: Teng Yan; Source: Twitter@0xPrismatic; Translation: MarsBit, MK
Is the NFT market taking its last breath? It seems so – looking at the plummeting prices of “blue-chip” NFTs. But let’s wait and see, and let our crystal ball tell us what:
Despite platforms like Blur and LooksRare attempting to boost the market, weekly NFT trading volume remains stagnant. Is interest waning? Lack of fresh capital? Correction of overvaluation? It could be a combination of these three factors.
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But wait, there is hope. I am 95% certain that the NFT market will recover at some point… and we will witness another epic, gravity-defying NFT bull market.
First, let’s take a long-term view. Currently, NFTs account for only 1.3% of the total cryptocurrency market value. Insignificant. With the potential to capture cultural value in multiple fields such as art, music, and gaming, it is not unreasonable to think that it could reach 5-10% in the next cycle.
Secondly, history tells us that the cryptocurrency market is highly cyclical. Even if we view NFTs as “picture coins” as @cobie said. Well, the altcoin market has given us many insights.
Remember the peaks of the altcoin cycles in 2017 and 2021? They always seem to make a comeback after the calm period. The phoenix in that proverb. NFTs may not be an exception.
Now, I can argue that history cannot predict the future. It doesn’t mean the same cycle will definitely happen. That’s true. But it seems logical to follow it until it no longer works.
However, picking winners is difficult. How many of the top 50 coins in 2017 still have an impact today? Remember VET, Waltonchain, Antshares? Most have gradually been forgotten.
I believe the same thing will happen with NFTs: it’s the “shiny new object” syndrome. Many winners of the next cycle may not have emerged yet. But there is one way to avoid this situation: I will introduce it at the end.
(Image provided by @kadavy)
Well, I admit, I don’t actually have a crystal ball (if you do, please let me know). So, let’s speculate. If we follow a 4-year cycle timeline, we may start seeing some signs of sprouting in the NFT market in the next 9-12 months and reach its peak in 2025.
Third, the next NFT bull market may be bigger than the previous one. Because NFT financial products lending, derivatives, Buy Now Pay Later, index funds, etc. could all be catalysts for an explosive bull market.
For example: @Tribe3Official, @arcade_xyz
Fourth, major DeFi blue-chip stocks have started to rise slightly. In the past 90 days:
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MKR has risen by 60%
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COMP has risen by 45%
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SNX, AAVE have risen by 10% to 30%
Some of this is driven by fundamentals: protocols like @MakerDAO now generate over $200 million in annual revenue
What is the relationship between DeFi and NFT?
A lot! First, it shows us how an industry can recover: by building truly revenue-generating businesses. Similarly, when the NFT industry recovers: I predict that those connected to revenue-generating businesses will attract the most investor interest. Whether it’s plush toys like @pudgypenguins, guilds and game operations, or fee-based markets, etc.
Also, remember when the 2021 NFT season started at the end of the 2020 DeFi summer? People became wealthy and had money to show off their identity value in JPG images. I expect similar dynamics to occur again.
Because, let’s face it, when you become a cryptocurrency millionaire, those rare Pepe NFTs don’t seem so expensive anymore.
In conclusion: I sincerely believe that those who remain vigilant during the bear market will be rewarded. Be patient, observe, and persist.
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