Compiled by DeepChain
Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold
Analysts at JPMorgan, a large financial institution, wrote in a memo to clients that in the latest price forecast, the cryptocurrency bitcoin could reach 6.3 million yen ($45,000).
Due to bitcoin’s rarity, with a limit of 21 million BTC, many investors include it in their asset portfolios as an alternative investment and as part of risk hedging. It is sometimes referred to as “digital gold” for its asset value similar to that of gold. Recently, its correlation with the price of gold has been noted.
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The JPMorgan analyst said:
With gold hovering around $2,000, the value of non-central bank investment purposes of gold currently stands at about $3 trillion. If bitcoin were to be as big as gold in retail investment portfolios or in terms of risk capital or trading volumes adjusted, that would mean a bitcoin price of $45,000.
Bitcoin Halving
Another reason JPMorgan supports a rise in bitcoin price is bitcoin halving, expected to occur around the end of April 2024.
Halving refers to the timing when the bitcoin mining reward is halved. Bitcoin specifies that every time the number of blocks reaches 210,000 (about once every four years), the number of new BTC issued as a reward to miners is halved.
JPMorgan expects that by next year’s halving, the breakeven point for bitcoin mining costs will double from current levels to around $40,000. Miners’ costs have “always been an effective support line” in history, so the price of bitcoin is likely to rise after halving.
In addition, based on historical data, the price of bitcoin entered a bull market before and after the halving in 2016 and 2020, and we expect a similar phenomenon to occur next time.
JPMorgan also mentioned Ethereum. He said these stocks may face short-term selling pressure before mid-year.
Arthur Hayes is bullish
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of leading derivatives exchange BitMEX, is bullish on Bitcoin post-2024.
In a podcast, Hayes emphasized the importance of Bitcoin’s halving in 2024. That same year, he made an optimistic prediction that Bitcoin would break the $70,000 (¥9.8 million) mark and reach a new all-time high between 2025 and 2026.
Meanwhile, the US banking crisis and the US federal government’s “trillion-dollar bond issuance” in the third and fourth quarters of this year have caused “powder keg explosion” and reduced Bitcoin’s price volatility. He believes that this will be intense, but ultimately beneficial to Bitcoin.
Hayes also said he is keeping an eye on the movement of “Bitcoin Ordinals,” the Bitcoin version of NFTs.
The YouTube show “Digital Asset News,” which has 330,000 subscribers, mentioned the expansion of the NFT market on the Bitcoin blockchain. He used the fact that it surpassed Solana to become the second-largest NFT blockchain as a reason to be bullish on Bitcoin’s future price.
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