Reviewing the NFT winter of the past half year Who is ‘surrendering’ and who is growing against the trend?

Author: NFTGo

Like the cryptocurrency market, NFTs also have their own cycle. In November 2022, the trading volume of the NFT market experienced a low point, with a daily trading volume of about 5kETH. During these two bear market cycles, how did the top NFTs perform after undergoing changes for half a year? Which NFTs experienced a decline? And which NFTs experienced a reversal and rise?

By comparing the average holding rate and listing rate of the top NFTs, we can see that Degods has the highest average holding quantity, about 3.45, followed by Meebits, about 3. CryptoPunks has the highest listing rate, about 10.81%, followed by CloneX, and Veefriends and Meebits have the lowest listing rates.

Next, we selected blue-chip collections with similar floor prices around November 2022 and compared their performance over the past half year. From this, we can see that the floor price of CryptoPunks is still above 30 ETH. Bored Ape Yacht Club has reached above 20 ETH. The range of 6-20 ETH is a blank area. Projects with floor prices around 4+ ETH include MAYC, DeGods, Azuki, Captainz, Memeland, Milady, and Pudgy Penguins.

Among these projects, Pudgy Penguins is the only project with a significant increase in floor price, about 47.39%. On the other hand, “Invisible friends” and “Moonbirds” have experienced the largest decrease in floor price.

CryptoPunks & Board Ape Yacht Club

CryptoPunks and BAYC were both top projects in the 50E+ range last year, but they experienced a decline as the market entered a bear market. In the past half year, CryptoPunks dropped from 64.96 ETH by 26.31% to 47.87 ETH, while BAYC dropped by 56.36% from 55.89 ETH to 24.39 ETH.

From the floor price, we can see that CryptoPunks has a relatively stable trend compared to BAYC. The floor price of CryptoPunks gradually decreased with the overall market sentiment, while BAYC had larger fluctuations and periodic increases during the decline.

BAYC has larger price fluctuations, partly due to the continuous development and news releases of the BAYC ecosystem, which affect market trends whenever new information is announced. Another factor is that some BAYC is used for lending. These factors have made BAYC’s trading volume much higher than CryptoPunks, with a trading volume 6 times that of the latter, and whale transactions 5 times that of the latter.

The indicators of these two projects undoubtedly represent the overall market trend. Whether it is the stable and gradual decline of CryptoPunks or the fluctuating decline of BAYC, both will affect the overall market sentiment.

Mutant Ape Yacht Club & Azuki

Mutant Ape Yacht Club (MAYC) and Azuki were both blue-chip NFT projects with a price range of 10 ETH about half a year ago. Now, they have both dropped below 5 ETH. MAYC has fallen 56.70% from 10.60 ETH to 4.59 ETH, while Azuki has dropped 59.94% from 9.36 ETH to 3.75 ETH.

Overall, MAYC has been on a downward trend amidst continuous fluctuations. The price fluctuations of MAYC are closely related to the price fluctuations of Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC). In most cases, when BAYC rises or falls, MAYC also experiences relatively small increases or decreases in price range.

Before June 23rd, the floor price of Azuki was slowly rising. From November 17, 2022, to June 23, 2023, Azuki rose from 9.36 ETH to 16.95 ETH, an increase of 81.09%. This can be attributed to the close-knit community culture and the continuous actions and hotspots created by the Azuki team in the past half year. Additionally, Azuki has collaborated with many brands, including Beanz, and announced the “Follow The Azuki Rabbit” event to be held in LA on June 23rd, along with the release of new NFTs.

However, the positive momentum came to a halt on the 23rd. The newly launched Elementals received criticism for its lack of creativity in design, leading to some whales and Azuki holders selling off and exiting the project.

VeeFriends & Doodles & CloneX & Moonbirds

VeeFriends, Doodles, CloneX, and Moonbirds, four blue-chip NFTs with a price range of 5 ETH half a year ago, have all dropped to around 1 ETH. VeeFriends has fallen 71.79% from 5.99 ETH to 1.69 ETH, Doodles has dropped 75.54% from 5.6 ETH to 1.37 ETH, CloneX has fallen 79.97% from 5.99 ETH to 1.20 ETH, and Moonbirds has dropped 82.27% from 6.77 ETH to 1.20 ETH.

These four NFT projects have also experienced a decline in the overall bearish NFT market over the past half year. In terms of the magnitude of the decline, VeeFriends has the smallest fluctuation, while Moonbirds has the largest.

Meebits & Pudgy Penguins & CoolCats & World of Women & Invisible Friends

Meebits, Pudgy Penguins, CoolCats, World of Women, and Invisible Friends, several blue-chip NFTs with a price range of 1-4 ETH half a year ago, except for Pudgy Penguins, have all dropped below 1 ETH. Meebits has fallen 62.20% from 2.55 ETH to 0.96 ETH, CoolCats has dropped 67.32% from 1.94 ETH to 0.63 ETH, World of Women has fallen 59.43% from 1.51 ETH to 0.61 ETH, and Invisible Friends has dropped 86.76% from 2.62 ETH to 0.35 ETH. On the contrary, Pudgy Penguins has risen against the trend, increasing by 47% from 2.49 ETH to 3.67 ETH. In terms of the magnitude of the decline, World of Women has the smallest fluctuation, while Invisible Friends has the largest.

It is worth noting that Pudgy Penguins is the only collection among these projects that saw a reverse surge in value. After some fluctuations in December 2022, it stabilized and experienced a small rise and fall in June. After the NFT market entered a bear market at the end of 2022, Pudgy Penguins also went through a period of decline. Internal team issues and operational problems led to the project’s difficulties, and the floor price once dropped to the bottom. The addition of serial entrepreneur Luca Netz has opened a new chapter for Pudgy Penguins, establishing an all-star board of directors and injecting more experience and resources into the project. At the same time, through the “Phygital” series, the project combines physical and digital experiences and launches physical toy products.

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