A. Market Perspective
I. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity is tightening. The Federal Reserve indicated at the Wednesday meeting that it will continue to raise interest rates before the end of the year, and interest rates need to be maintained at a high level for a longer period of time. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back from June next year to September, postponing the bull market phase. Because the US economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience, the Federal Reserve cannot give inflation a chance to make a comeback. The monthly chart of the US dollar index broke through and rose sharply, suppressing risk assets. US stocks have fallen below their previous lows, and the cryptocurrency market has weakly rebounded.
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II. Overall Market Situation
Top 100 market cap gainers:
In the second half of this week, the market rebound entered the later stage, and BTC dominance increased. After receiving recognition from Telegram, the public chain TON has shown an impressive rebound, upgrading its status to the Web3 infrastructure chosen by Telegram with 800 million users. The market is centered around social media and gaming.
1. MKR: As the leader in the RWA field, it now has an annual income of $180 million, with a net profit of $60 million directly used for token buybacks. Long-term high interest rates on US bonds are beneficial to the RWA track, with an overall PE ratio of 21 times, which is almost cheaper than the valuation of US growth stocks. The supply of the stablecoin DAI, which is part of the old business, has also steadily increased to $5.5 billion. MKR plans to split its business into four Subdaos (social media, lending, and two RWAs) and issue tokens in early next year, similar to a spin-off listing.
2. TON: With a market cap of $12 billion, it has entered the top 10. TON is the public chain of Telegram, with the traffic dividend of 700 million Telegram users (similar to WeChat), and its main team is from Russia and China. TON’s architecture is similar to Polkadot, and its technology is relatively mediocre; there are very few applications on it, mainly imitations. The TVL lock-up is about $10 million. After the recent popularity of trading bots, the market expects a future embedded ecosystem similar to WeChat mini-programs. The project started in 2017, and before the transition from POW to POS in June 2022, POW miners hold a large amount of chips. The chips are highly concentrated, with the top 10 addresses accounting for 80%. TON is mainly used for payment network fees.
3. TOPIA: The market value of the game is $200 million (SAND has a market value of $900 million). The original NFT Worlds sandbox game has decoupled from Minecraft and migrated to TOPIA (with a loss of 5%), which is still in beta testing and has registered users of over 400,000. The original NFT World land pledging and being an Uniswap LP for TOPIA can both mine TOPIA.
3. BTC Market
1) On-chain Data
BTC investor confidence declined. Almost all short-term holders (within 6 months) are currently at a loss, marking the first time since the collapse of FTX exchange, leading to a negative shift in sentiment.
Stablecoins remain stable. According to CoinShares’ statistics, a total of $54 million flowed out of cryptocurrency investment products in the past week, marking the fifth consecutive week of net outflows. Outflows have occurred in 8 out of the past 9 weeks, totaling $450 million. The United States is the main area where funds are flowing out, accounting for 77%.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is below 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the key level of 1, indicating that holders are generally at a loss. The current indicator is 0.5, entering the recovery phase.
2) Futures Market
Funding rate for futures: Neutral this week. Rates are between 0.05-0.1%, indicating more long leverage, which is a short-term top in the market; rates between -0.1-0% indicate more short leverage, which is a short-term bottom in the market.
Futures open interest: BTC total open interest decreased slightly this week, indicating speculative funds entering the market.
Futures long/short ratio: 1.1. Retail investors have a strong bearish sentiment. Retail sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with a reading below 0.7 indicating panic and above 2.0 indicating greed. The fluctuation of the long/short ratio data weakens its significance as a reference.
3) Spot Market
BTC daily chart rebounds close to the latter half, with resistance around 28,000. At this stage, it is similar to the downtrend in the monthly chart, where the rebound in the weekly chart has just ended and the second half of the weekly downtrend is yet to come. Pay attention to the confirmation opportunity of the ETH Cancun upgrade at the end of the year. It is recommended to gradually increase positions during the market downturn.
B. Market Data
1. Total Locked Amount of Public Chains
2. Proportion of TVL of Each Public Chain
This week, the overall TVL rose by nearly 1.4 billion, with an increase of 3.6%. Although the overall TVL has seen a significant increase this week, it has not yet broken the downward trend. Ethereum (ETH) saw a 7.4% increase, Binance Smart Chain (BSC) saw a 3.3% increase, Arbitrum (ARB) saw a 6.8% increase, and both Polygon and Optimism (OP) saw increases of over 3%. It is worth noting that TRON saw an increase of over 20% in the past week, but BASE has experienced a significantly slower increase after a surge in the past few weeks. Other chains also saw overall increases, and market sentiment has seen a slight improvement in the past week, with a sense of optimism.
3. Locked Amount of Each Chain’s Protocols
1) Locked Amount of ETH
2) Locked Amount of BSC
3) Locked Amount of Polygon
4) Locked Amount of Arbitrum
5) Locked Amount of Optimism
6) Locked Amount of Base
4. ETH Gas Fee Historical Data
In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap still occupies the top position, accounting for 12.98% of the entire market. The on-chain transfer fee is about $0.94, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $3.22, and the OpenSea transaction fee is about $1.25. Gas continued to decline slightly this week. Although there was a slight rebound in on-chain applications and transactions with the slight increase in Bitcoin (BTC) in the past week, the depressed sentiment in the NFT market also showed some signs of recovery. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap still occupies the top position, accounting for 10.81% of the entire market.
5. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT Trading Market Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of top blue-chip projects have remained relatively stable. BAYC has risen by 2.3%, MAYC has risen by 1.3%, DeGods has risen by 2.8%, and Pudgy Penguins has risen by 9.4%. The total number of wallets and repeat buyers have both shown an upward trend, indicating an overall improvement in the market situation. The number of first-time buyers has also rebounded to some extent, but prices have not yet completely recovered from the downturn.
5. Latest Financing Situation of Projects
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