Recently, the Godfish team conducted an internal activity where they reviewed the major events of the first half of the year and shared the top three things they believe are worth paying attention to in the second half of the year. These include the Ethereum upgrade in the second half of the year (the Cancun upgrade), MPC-based technology and keyless wallets, on-chain AA smart wallets, and the application of traditional institutional ETFs. This speech has been compiled into text format by Wu Blockchain.
Review of major events in the first half of the year: Macro events include the collapse of a US digital bank in March, which resulted in a disappearance of a crucial channel for Crypto to fiat and vice versa. In April, Ethereum completed an upgrade in Shanghai, resulting in a very secure underlying asset for cryptocurrencies. In April, there was a change in cryptocurrency policy in Hong Kong, and a new policy was implemented on June 1st. In June, the US tightened regulations, and the SEC sued exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase, causing a period of extreme market sentiment and a sharp drop. However, market sentiment quickly reversed as many traditional financial companies began to apply for cryptocurrency ETFs.
Industry developments: In February and March, there was a small wave of excitement due to the launch of the Move public chain, but the bubble quickly burst. Blur’s airdrop brought a liquidity feast for NFTs, causing an increase in NFTs, particularly blue-chip NFTs, in January and February. However, with the subsequent inability of blue-chip projects such as Ape and Azuki to meet expectations, the prices fell sharply, and NFTs are currently in a state of narrative logic restructuring. In late April and early May, there was a wave of MEME coin speculation, causing many junk coins to rise many times. In addition, BTC’s Ordinals NFT and BRC20 on-chain combination also contributed to the wave of MEME coin speculation.
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The above are the major events that have occurred in the cryptocurrency industry over the past six months. The basic conclusion drawn from the above analysis is that the industry is currently in a phase of narrative logic deficiency, while being greatly influenced by macro and regulatory factors.
Three things to watch for in the second half of the year: 1) Ethereum will have an upgrade in the second half of the year to improve performance. L2 will be launched on the mainnet in the next 6-12 months, including a series of second-layer networks such as Scroll and ZKS, all vying to become the first and gain a good first-mover advantage. Once Ethereum completes its upgrade, the performance issues that have plagued the entire blockchain industry for the past decade may gradually be solved. 2) Keyless wallets based on MPC technology and on-chain AA smart wallets may gradually form a unified standard with the launch of L2, leading to large-scale promotion and application. 3) In Q1 of next year, around the end of March, SEC must reply on whether to approve ETFs from traditional institutions. We expect to see one or two ETFs from traditional financial institutions with large-scale liquidity, which will reopen the compliant capital channels in North America.
Reference: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hbeXXIMWiI4GEKZwZ3inzQ
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