The holding address of 1 arb has been steadily increasing, with the address holding 50,000 arb experiencing the highest growth rate. It has maintained a 10% increase in July. This indicates that large funds on the chain are continuously buying, although the growth rate has slowed down due to the overall market conditions.
In the past 30 days, there has been a net outflow of 15 million ARB from exchanges, which also indicates that the Cancun upgrade is imminent and users are continuously accumulating.
For the top 100 holders of arb, most of them are in a loss of 17%, and the majority have held ARB for about 3 months. The number of transfers on the chain by these large holders is relatively low, making them super holders.
Among the large holders of ARB, the largest number is in the 1.3-1.4 range, and they also hold the largest amount of ARB. They bought in during the earliest market conditions. From historical data, it is found that a price around 1 dollar may not be very attractive to large holders and may not lead to a significant increase in holdings.
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Research on the number of holders
The number of holders represents the supporters of the project.
The above chart shows the number of ARB holders over time, representing those holding more than 1 ARB, more than 100 ARB, and more than 50,000 ARB respectively.
1) More than 1 ARB, valued at around 1 U, represents the total number of holders.
Here, I have adopted a different definition from other data platforms. In my research, I found that there are a large number of very small non-zero addresses, which are only leftovers from selling/transferring. Obviously, these addresses cannot be considered as holders because they do not actually hold any tokens. However, their existence can affect the data on the total number of holders and even lead to opposite conclusions.
2) More than 100 ARB, valued at around 100 U, is a reference to the legend of the 100 U God of War in the community. It represents the number of users who actively buy and hold.
3) More than 50,000 ARB, valued at around 50,000 U, represents the high asset holders.
From the data, it can be seen that the number of ARB holding addresses is steadily increasing and has reached 400,000 so far. At the same time, it is also found that the growth of the three types of holding addresses has been declining since March. The growth of the number of holders with more than 1 ARB has decreased from 31.7% to 7.4%. The growth of the number of addresses holding more than 100 ARB has decreased from 18% to 5%, and the growth of the number of addresses holding more than 50,000 ARB has decreased from 45% to 9.8%. This indicates that the recent market conditions have had a certain impact on holders.
However, when we compare the growth rates, we will find that the address holding 50,000 ARB has the highest growth rate, indicating that large funds on the chain are continuously buying, although the growth rate has slowed down due to the overall market conditions.
Research on DEX/CEX data in the past 30 days
In the above figure, the first image represents the daily deposit/withdrawal situation of the exchange, where yellow represents net deposit of the day and blue represents net withdrawal of the day. The shaded area represents the cumulative deposit and withdrawal. The second image represents the average amount of each deposit/withdrawal, which is used to determine whether it is the behavior of large account holders or small retail investors. Intuitively, higher peak values indicate the behavior of large account holders, while lower peak values mainly indicate the behavior of small retail investors.
From the data on the graph, in the past 30 days, a net outflow of 15 million ARB has been observed from the exchange. The largest net outflow occurred on July 24th, with a net outflow of 4.3 million ARB. At the same time, it was also observed that on August 8th, there was a net inflow of 3.3 million ARB. In terms of average amount, it belongs to the deposits of large account holders. This may be a coincidence or it could be that some large account holders have started to surrender under the pressure of OP competition and the BTC market. It is worth paying attention to.
The above image shows the buying and selling behavior on the DEX (decentralized exchange). The first image represents the daily buying and selling situation on the DEX, where yellow bars represent net buying of the day and blue bars represent net selling of the day. The shaded area represents the cumulative net buying volume, with negative values indicating net selling. The second image represents the average amount of each buy/sell, which is used to determine the behavior of large account holders.
Unlike CEX (centralized exchange), DEX allows direct buying and selling.
From the graph, it can be seen that in mid-July, the market was in a net buying state, while at the beginning of August, the market was in a net selling state. However, the cumulative values were not significant, in the range of 1 million ARB. On August 8th, there was the largest net selling of over 2 million ARB in a single day. However, overall, the trading on the DEX is much worse compared to the CEX.
The above image shows the number of transfers of wallet addresses (contract addresses) on the DEX and CEX, which is the cumulative number of transfers in and out.
From CEX, it can be seen that the most active times on CEX are UTC 12, 13, 14, and 07, which in Beijing time corresponds to 3 pm and evening. This is during the overlapping period of the Americas and Asia. It can also be observed that the number of transfers during other time periods does not differ significantly. Overall, there are many active trading periods for ARBDE.
From DEX, it can be seen that the most active times on DEX are UTC 12, 14, and 16, followed by 13:00 and 17:00. In Beijing time, this is during the evening, still in the overlapping area of the Americas and Asia time zones.
Overall, there is no significant time zone distinction between ARB on CEX and DEX.
3 Profile of Large Account Holders
Note: Large account holders refer to the top 100 addresses holding ARB after excluding project parties, DEX, CEX, MEV, DEX intermediate wallets, and CEX intermediate wallets.
Above is the core information summarizing the addresses of the major holders.
1) ROI: Looking at the ROI, most major holders are in a slight loss, with a median of -7%. The range of profit and loss for 50% of major holders is between -13% and 0%. The maximum loss is 25% and the maximum profit is 18%.
2) TransactionsPerDay (TPD) refers to the average number of daily transfers for an address, which measures the activity level of the wallet on the blockchain and can indirectly indicate whether the holders are long-term or short-term operators. From the data, the median TPD of ARB major holders is 0.18, which means an average of 5-6 transfers per month, indicating relatively low-frequency operations.
3) Looking at the addressAge, the median wallet age is 134 days, with 50% of addresses ranging from 82 to 457 days. This wide range of time spans indicates that both veterans and newcomers in the cryptocurrency industry have invested in ARB.
4) HoldDay represents the duration of holding ARB for an address, with a median of 87 days, indicating that most holders have been holding ARB since about 3 months ago.
Overall, the wallets of ARB major holders are mostly in a loss, and most of them have been holding ARB for about 3 months. The daily number of on-chain transfers is relatively low, indicating low-frequency operators.
The above figure shows the relationship between the cost and holding amount of major holders. The size of the spheres represents the holding time. From the figure, we can visually see:
1) As analyzed above, most major holders are in a loss. The largest number of major holders and the largest amount of ARB holdings are in the range of 1.3 to 1.4. From the size of the spheres, they are all relatively large, indicating that they were held during the period after ARB was listed.
2) The holdings with smaller spheres are not significant, indicating that the recent new major holders do not have a high proportion in the overall holdings.
3) ARB’s price once dropped to around $1, but there was only one major holder with a cost around $1. This indicates that for major holders, a price of around $1 does not attract a large number of additional holdings.
Summary: Among ARB major holders, the largest number and amount of holdings are in the range of 1.3 to 1.4, indicating that they were bought during the earliest market. From the historical data, it can be observed that a price of around $1 may not be very attractive to major holders and may not lead to a significant increase in their holdings.
The above figure shows the total assets of the major holders (valued in USD) and the relationship between their holdings of ARB. The size of the spheres represents the remaining assets, i.e., the larger the sphere, the smaller the proportion of ARB in their assets, indirectly reflecting the potential for further increase in holdings by major holders. From the figure, we can visually see:
1) The assets of the major holders are all over $1 million.
2) The largest proportion is between 2 million and 5 million US dollars.
3) Analyzing by the size of the sphere, the majority of ARB holders have a very high proportion of assets in their addresses, even all of their assets. There are about 20% of large holders whose proportion of ARB is not high.
In general, the majority of large ARB holders have a very high proportion of ARB in their assets. Only about 20% of large holders have further purchasing potential. Of course, considering that the wallet addresses are relatively new, it is possible that large holders specifically use addresses to store ARB.
4 Analysis of Additional Holders
The above graph shows the data on the holdings of large holders in the past 30 days. Among them,
1) %Increase Of Amount represents the proportion of ARB amount increased in the total ARB position. This proportion is 16.92%, and the total increase is 48.7 million coins.
2) % Increase Holder Of Total Holders represents the proportion of increased holdings among large holders. A total of 42 large holders have increased their holdings.
3) Among the holders who have increased their holdings, 1 million coins seems to be a favorite number for large holders. There are 16 large holders who have increased their holdings by 1 million ARB coins. According to analysis, 14 of these large holders have relatively new addresses (within 30 days) and only hold ARB coins, indicating that these addresses are specifically used to store ARB. Considering the number of transactions and different sources, it is not believed to be the same person, so it may be a common phenomenon in the past month.