Bitcoin Cash Soars: Another Performance by “South Korean Capital”?

Recently, the old coin BCH has suddenly surged, causing various speculations. Cryptocurrency analyst DeFi^2 analyzed the order book and transaction data of CEX and found that the surge of BCH is likely driven by “South Korean capital”, similar to what happened with Aptos.

After BCH was listed on the EDX exchange, a large spot buyer intervened. I estimate that this entity has accumulated $100 million worth of BCH spot, although its motives are unclear. Around the same time, the open interest of the BCH perp contract began to soar. In just a few days, perp OI increased fivefold from $100 million to $500 million. During this period, the bid volume on Upbit’s spot sharply increased, becoming the main driver of price increases. This situation persisted until the top was reached, causing a 20% flash crash in a matter of seconds, with BCH reaching $320.

What do these explosive top OI changes mean? It confirms that Bybit’s users are indeed mimicking the shorts, but Binance’s OI change is surprisingly low, which means that the OI may come from more complex players. Two possible contributors are BCH miners, and the second largest contributor may be the original large spot buyer itself. The remaining OI will be divided into different degrees of shorts and longs, but it can be said that the remaining squeezable positions are far less than imagined.

Based on my observations, most of the move from $220 was driven by retail traders, and once the market finally tops out, it may retrace to this point. To go lower, large spot buyers need to exit, and I haven’t seen any signs of this yet. In any case, I still see a lot of similarities with past Korean-driven “pumps,” like Aptos, and I expect this to be another long-term framework short as Korean speculators slowly lose interest in this dead coin.

Reference: https://twitter.com/DefiSquared/status/1675645482113089536

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